the greycat blog

A mere two months after it was featured in The Guardian (and right here on this blog), the Zerefos et al analysis of paintings depicting sunsets between 1500 and 1900 has turned up on the Discovery Channel’s news pages: ‘Art as a window to climate change’.

The article quotes some skeptical responses to the Zerefos approach from, among others, Kevin Trenberth of the Climate Analysis Research Center, who points out that ‘Painters are not scientists trying to do an accurate picture of nature’, and James Hamilton, biographer of J. M. W. Turner, who comments that ‘It’s very hard to tell when artists are being absolutely accurate and when they’re using vivid sky as a platform to more vivid painting’.

I agree with those reservations, and have my own doubts about the study, which I noted in my original post, but it’s still an interesting approach and, if nothing else, provides some illuminating insights into the interaction between artists and nature (however they saw that nebulous concept) over a long period. This is a direct link to the Zerefos article (PDF) in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, August 2007.

On 6 November scientists watching Mount Kelut were ‘puzzled’ by the volcano’s behaviour and felt unable to predict with much confidence what it would do next. Today they are sounding more confident that the danger of a major eruption is past, for now: ‘The volcano no longer has the energy needed for an explosive eruption that would threaten the lives of people living nearby’.

Meanwhile, activity at Anak Krakatau has been increasing: ‘Officials said, on Friday from 6 a.m to 6 p.m local time, there have been 182 eruptions coupled with 11 volcanic quakes, eight deep volcanic tremors, 54 shallow volcanic shocks, 44 tremors, and spewing smokes 29 times, but not too threatening’, as China’s Xinhua news agency rather charmingly puts it today. AP has a nice report on Anak Krakatau and its famous progenitor, Krakatau, including reassuring words from a local scientific observer:

Despite the history of its father, Anak is not considered especially dangerous — for now. It has settled into a pattern of a gentle eruption every seven or eight years, scientists said. ‘Maybe in hundreds of years it will blow, but I will be long gone by then,’ said Cahya Patria, among the scientists at the Center for Vulcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation who keep watch on the mountain from a hill on the mainland.

Earlier posts on Kelut: here and here.

The Indonesian volcano Mount Kelut (see earlier post) seems to have gone for a slow effusive eruption rather than anything spectacularly explosive, and the authorities have downgraded the volcano’s alert status. ‘The energy that has accumulated since 11 September, 2007 has mostly been spent in an effusive eruption process and has continuously been used in the forming of a lava dome’ announced Indonesian government volcanologists yesterday (sounding rather disappointed with the volcano’s performance, I thought). Officials, aware that lava domes can be unpredictable things, are hedging their bets, however: ‘People are advised to return to their homes but it isn’t impossible that there could be a sudden increase in the intensity of activities. People must be ready to be evacuated again’ read the official statement announcing the reduced alert level.

An eruption appears to be under way at one of the most deadly of Indonesia’s volcanoes, Kelut. No visual confirmation is available as the mountain is ‘cloaked in fog’ but seismic readings indicate that an eruption is occurring. Kelut (or Kelud) is located a mere 90km from Surabaya city, and an estimated 350,000 people live within 10km of the volcano. The area has been on high alert since last month (GDACS red volcano alert for Kelut, 17 October 2007), with thousands of people already evacuated. It hasn’t been easy to persuade everyone to leave, however: Indonesian officials have had to resort to using movies and pop singers to lure people to safety.

Kelut is highly active, with recent deadly eruptions in 1990 (VEI=4), 1966, 1951 and 1919.

Anak Krakatau is also currently kicking up a fuss.

As everyone who has more than a passing acquaintance with CafePress knows, most of the stuff that is sold there is rubbish. Occasionally, however, decent designs and clever concepts appear through the mire of mediocrity, and in ‘t-shirt of the week’ it’s my intention to highlight the good ones that come to my notice. CafePress sells a lot of different product lines these days, but t-shirts are what most people are interested in, so it’s ‘t-shirt of the week’ rather than ‘CafePress product of the week’ (which is less snappy as a title anyway).

First up: the AD/79 Truth shop sells a nice line in Pompeii truther-wear. ‘Pompeii was an inside job, impeach Emperor Titus’, etc. Guaranteed to appeal to volcanologists and truth-seekers everywhere.

An article in The Independent, published on 17 October 2007, looks at some of the volcanoes that are overdue for major eruptions, including Vesuvius (’another big one is due’), Unzen (’warning signs that a cataclysmic blow is on its way’), and of course Yellowstone (’the cavernous vats beneath the surface are refilling with magma’). Unusually for The Independent, they do not blame any of this on global warming.

Mary Morgan, ‘Volcanoes: ready, stead [sic], blow’, The Independent, 17 October 2007